Butler did it! Bulldogs down suddenly slumping Xavier
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
12/23/2008 - Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Howard had 19 points and 14 rebounds as the Butler Bulldogs upset the 14th-ranked Xavier Musketeers, 74-65, at Cintas Center.
Gordon Hayward had 19 points and 10 rebounds while Willie Veasley added 12 points for the Bulldogs (10-1), who have won two straight.
Derrick Brown had 17 points and eight boards while C.J. Anderson had 15 points for the Musketeers (9-2), who have dropped their last two games.
Holding a lead to start the second half, Butler built on its advantage with six straight points and Shelvin Mack's jumper made it a 44-36 game.
Trailing by seven points later in the second half, Xavier scored six straight points with Terrell Holloway getting the final three on a layup and free throw to make it a 53-52 game with a bit over eight minutes to play.
Butler, though, answered with a three-pointer from Hayward followed a bit later with a free throw from Ronald Nored to make it a 57-52 contest with 6 1/2 minutes to play.
Holloway was fouled as he put in a layup and he drained the free throw to cut the deficit to 61-57, but Nored followed with a layup to keep it a six-point game with a bit over four minutes to play.
Brown, though, countered with a three-pointer, but Butler then hit five straight free throws and held a 68-60 lead on Hayward's two from the line with under three minutes to play.
Two free throws from Anderson and a three-pointer by Brown made it a three- point game again with two minutes to play, but the Butler defense clamped down and didn't allow Xavier any more points as the Bulldogs held on for the win.
Butler assumed early command of the game with an 8-0 run in the opening minutes of the contest.
It stayed close for the next several minutes, but Xavier got a layup from Anderson followed by a three-pointer from Brad Redford for a 26-24 advantage with a little over two minutes left in the first half.
The Bulldogs, though, countered with a three-ball from Nored and a jumper by Shawn Vanzant to take a 29-26 lead into the locker room.
Game Notes
Xavier hosts Robert Morris on New Year's Eve...Butler hosts UAB next Tuesday...Xavier leads the all-time series, 28-15.
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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